2010 General Election betting preview

On 6th May, the great British public will trundle down to their local town hall or community centre, take a pencil and mark an X in the box next to the name of the candidate that they would like to be their MP for the next four years.

While many of us find the idea of voting Conservative unthinkable, it’s the Tories who are extremely strong favourites to win the most seats at the General Election. They have drifted slightly in the past few weeks, although Coral, totesport and William Hill offer 1/7 that David Cameron and his party get their noses in front.

However, when it comes to securing an overall majority, it appears that the Conservative Party have plenty of work on their hands. Their leader was not exactly convincing in the first televised debate and a Tory Majority on 6th May has drifted out to 4/5 on betfair. Indeed, it’s been ‘No Overall Majority’ that has been the market mover, coming in from 5/1 this time last year to a best price 7/4 (Ladbrokes).

Such an outcome would result in a hung parliament, something that would delight the Liberal Democrat Party, who would then have a say in matters going forward and potentially get the chance to install Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Lib Dems are clearly the party of the main trio who have the clearest and most coherent policies, with the bookies offering plenty of odds on how many seats they will get.

In the last election, Nick Clegg and 61 of his party became MP’s and it’s easy to see this number rising. Bet365 offer 13/5 that we see the Lib Dems land 70 seats or more, with Paddy Power going 4/1 that we see 80 or more. Similarly, it’s hard to see Labour getting anywhere near the 356 seats that Tony Blair’s party managed in 2005, even if the number of overall seats up for grabs has risen from 646 to 650.

While it’s implausible that Ladbrokes’ 50/1 about the mob who have betrayed the spirit of socialism will get 99 or less seats on 6th May, Paddy Power’s 10/11 that Labour get between 201 and 250 seats looks a fair bet. Indeed, totesport’s 50/1 that Gordon Brown and his colleagues get between 350 and 374 seats at the next election illustrates how much they have slumped in the eyes of the public.

Indeed, it’s fair to say that a lot of the UK general public have become disillusioned with politics, especially after the expenses scandal that rocked the country last year. Therefore, it’s well worth a look at the Turnout Percentage market. In 2005, it was 61.3% that pitched up at the polling stations and there will surely be an increase this time around. Indeed, if you recall the state of play five years ago, it was very much a case of the Conservative Party being on its knees and many people apathetic to who should rule the country.

However, people voted strongly at the local elections last year and 70% or more could be a lively bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes). After all, there will be far more hotly-contested seats this time around and parties are spending more money than ever to secure your vote. Bet365 go 11/4 that we see between 65% and 70% of the population trundling down to that village hall and it’s hard to believe that the turnout will be between 60% and 65% once again (9/4 Ladbrokes).