Swindon Town v Millwall betting preview
Twelve months ago, a Gary Alexander quickfire brace had looked like sending Millwall into the Championship. The Lions led Scunthorpe 2-1 in the final and had several chances to double their advantage, before United hit two late goals to claim their place in the English second flight instead.
Kenny Jackett’s team have responded to this setback magnificently this season, regrouping to form a stronger bond than the last campaign and they were within touching distance of automatic promotion right until the final game of the season. The south London side are likely to be a popular bet at 6/5 (bet365) to win Saturday’s match in ninety minutes and make up for that heartbreak a year ago.
They’re unbeaten in four matches against Swindon, having beaten the same opponents on the final day of the season by a 3-2 scoreline. Bet365 offer 11/10 that there are Over 2.5 Goals in this contest, although it might be a tighter affair considering what’s at stake. While both teams needed to go for the win at The Den, they will be much warier of conceding first on Saturday.
Swindon might be feeling the pressure a little less, considering that expectations levels were modest at the beginning of the campaign, especially with the club having sold Simon Cox to West Brom. However, the Robins have not been short of firepower thanks to their star duo of Billy Paynter (6/1 Sporting Bet) and Charlie Austin (6/1 William Hill), a pair who have been rattling in the goals all term.
It’s the former who is just one short of thirty goals for the season and he looks to have recovered from injury to take his place in the starting XI at Wembley. However, Austin scoring the winning goal would be the real fairytale considering that the striker was plucked from non-league obscurity to sign for the Wiltshire side earlier in the season. His manager has been surprised by how quickly the 21-year-old has adapted to life in the big time and Ladbrokes offer 2/1 that he scores at any stage.
Even so, Millwall will not want this match to be too open and it’s worth noting that the favourites have the best defensive record in League One this season, conceding less than a goal per game. They kept two clean sheets against Huddersfield in the semi-finals and you can back them at 9/5 (Paddy Power) to manage a shut-out against Swindon’s deadly duo and 11/4 with the Irish brigade that they win to nil.
Indeed, it might be worth covering the 1-0 (7/1 Stan James) and 2-0 (9/1 Sporting Bet) about Millwall triumphing, especially with Steve Morison enjoying a fine time of things in front of goal. The former Stevenage striker has been a revelation this season and is 9/2 (Blue Square) to send the hoards of Lions supporters into delirium by opening the scoring.