Hennessy Gold Cup Preview – Newbury Races
The 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup, run over 3 miles 2½ furlongs at Newbury Racecourse in Berkshire, is a Grade 3 handicap chase open to four year olds and upwards. The race was won last year and in 2007 by Paul Nicholls’ Denman and this year, once again, revolves around his participation.
Denman is rated fully 18lbs higher than his nearest rival Neptune Collonges, 22lbs higher than Taranis and China Rock 23lbs higher than anything else. Of course, the Hennessy Gold Cup is a handicap, so that fact, in itself, is not particularly important. What is does mean, however, is that all but seven of Denman’s potential opponents are set to carry more than their allotted weights, so some of those further down the weights face very stiff tasks indeed.
Denman is rated 8lbs higher than when winning this race last year and has an absence of 220 days to overcome. However, he went on to finish a seven length second to Imperial Commander in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Paul Nicholls has his string in excellent order; the Ditcheat trainer has trained 15 winners in the past 14 days and produced Master Minded and Woolcombe Folly to win first time out as recently as last Saturday. Denman, of course, has had his share of problems – he was treated for an irregular heartbeat two years ago – and, aside from his excellent performances in this race and the Gold Cup last season, there were some causes for concern. He was beaten at odds of 1/6 in the Grade 2 Aon Chase at Newbury in February and again when a short-priced favourite for the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown in April. On balance, 9/2 looks short enough for a horse set to carry 11-12 and concede 18lbs and upwards all round, so Denman looks worth taking on.
The one that immediately jumps from the page is Ian Williams’ progressive 7-year-old Weird Al. Weird Al has been beaten just once in a six-race career and rallied to dead-heat with Little Josh, to whom he was conceding 6lbs, over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Carlisle on his reappearance at the end of October. The importance of that performance in the context of this race is that Little Josh went on to win the competitive Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, off a 6lbs higher mark, two weeks ago. That form suggests that Weird Al is well treated from a handicapping point of view, despite being 4lbs out of the handicap and, with winning form over 3 miles 1 furlong on soft going and over stiff fences, at Cheltenham and Wetherby, he looks one of the more likely winners. Seven year olds have a good record in the Hennessy in recent years, with five wins in the last 10 years.
Of those in the handicap proper, China Rock trained in Co. Tipperary by Mouse Morris, looks overpriced. The 7-year-old has returned in good form this season, winning at Gowran Park and Punchestown before finishing 4¼ lengths third to Kauto Star in the Grade 1 JNWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. A strict interpretation of that form would put Kauto Star in here with 10-8, or 10-9, which would make the biggest certainty in the history of the Hennessy Gold Cup. With that in mind, China Royal must be the selection and his current price is bordering on the ridiculous.
Nick Williams’ Diamond Harry price is short enough for a horse that has not been seen since pulling up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last March and is 4lbs out of the handicap. Burton Port finished a seven length second to Weapons Amnesty in the RSA Chase and went on to win the Grade 2 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree. His trainer Nicky Henderson has been amongst the winners in recent weeks, but with several of his runners appearing to need the run, Burton Port is probably best watched after 232 days off the course.
If Mouse Morris does decide to send China Rock over from Ireland, he could provide ante post punters with an early Christmas present, with Weird Al the most attractive candidate for second place. If not, Weird Al would have to be the one.