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NEWS – The Epsom Derby Best Odds and Betting Preview

The Derby

The Derby Stakes, the so-called “Blue Riband” of British Flat racing, is the feature race this weekend. The Group 1 contest, run over 1 mile 4 furlongs and 10 yards on Epsom Downs, invariably attracts the best middle distance performers from the UK and Ireland and, with £1.25 million in prize money on offer, fully deserves its lofty status.

The Master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien, originally had five entries in the Derby, but with long-time favourite St. Nicholas Abbey being withdrawn after injuring a muscle in his hind quarters and Cape Blanco heading to France for the Prix du Jockey Club he is likely to have three representatives.

The pick of the remaining Ballydoyle entries appears to be the Montjeu colt, Jan Vermeer, who is due to be ridden by Johnny Murtagh. Along with Kieron Fallon, Johnny Murtagh has the best recent record in the Derby with three wins in the last 10 years and there much be every chance of Jan Vermeer adding to his tally. Jan Vermeer has been beaten just once (on his debut) in his short career and was impressive when sluicing home in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs at the Curragh recently. He is already a Group 1 winner, however, having made all to win the Criterium Stakes at Saint-Cloud last November. He has his stamina to prove, but Montjeu has an exceptional record with his middle distance progeny and it will take a smart horse to lower Jan Vermeer’s colours on Saturday.

That said, his price (3/1 or shorter) looks short enough, given that there are several potentially top-class colts in opposition. The apparent Ballydoyle second string, Midas Touch, has a little to find with Jan Vermeer on Criterium Stakes running, but won the Group 2 Derrinstown Derby Trial Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Leopardstown on his reappearance and should not be dismissed out of hand. There in no tangible reason to question Johnny Murtagh’s judgement, however, as Jan Vermeer appears to have better form in the book.

Another recent trial winner, Henry Cecil’s Bullet Train, appears to have as good a chance as any (and probably better than most) of the home contingent. The son of Sadler’s Wells was narrowly beaten by Myplacelater (who has subsequently done little for the form) on his reappearance at Newbury in April, but can probably be forgiven that run as almost all of Henry Cecil’s horses have needed a run this season. In any case, Bullet Train put up a much better performance when comfortably winning the Group 3 Totesport.com Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield Park last month. Statistically, that race has not been a great source of Derby winners in recent years, but the downhill section before the straight at Lingfield Park is similar to Tattenham Corner at Epsom, so experience of the track will stand him in good stead.

Sir Michael Stoute knows what is required to win the Derby, having saddled Shergar in 1981, Sharahstani in 1986 and more recently the 2003 and 2004 winners Kris Kin and North Light. His twice raced colt Workforce, a son of 2,000 Guineas winner King’s Best, has come in for support recently. He showed a tendency to hang to the left (in fact, the bit went right through his mouth at one point) when finishing 3¼ lengths second to Cape Blanco in the Group 2 Dante Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs at York last month and it remains to be seen if he is experienced enough to cope with the hurly burly of Derby Day.

Of those at longer odds, the Goldolphin representative Al Zir (25/1 in places) was a decent 2-year-old, winning twice and finishing third, albeit beaten 6¼ lengths, behind St. Nicholas Abbey in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. He was not disgraced in the 2,000 Guineas, finishing ninth, 6¼ lengths behind the winner and the form has been upheld by the second, Canford Cliffs, who won the Irish 2,000 Guineas and the third, Dick Turpin, who was beaten just ½ length in the Group 1 Poule D’Essai Des Poulins at Longchamp next time. Al Zir is by the American sire, Medaglia D’Oro, who won at up to 1 mile 2 furlongs, so there is a chance that an extra two furlongs is within his compass. If it is, he could well prove to be a lively outsider; he does, however, have 9lbs to find with Jan Vermeer on official ratings and Frankie Dettori has abandoned him in favour of Listed winner Rewilding.